Best bets for college football weekend

Wisconsin at Arizona State, 10:30 p.m. That puts us at 8-6 through the first two weeks of the season. The Longhorns won’t play that poorly again, but Ole Miss is much better offensively than BYU is. PT, and I’ll last through all these games. ET, ABC

Can y’all finish strong? Come on, I’m up at 4:30 a.m. Ohio State at California, 7 p.m. . In the game of the year, A&M’s the bet.

OK, here’s my viewer guide:

Tennessee’s not great, but the Vols aren’t awful either. Oregon will stack the line and dare Justin Worley to make plays. The Commodores’ defense struggled with Ole Miss’s offense, but South Carolina doesn’t do anything fancy.

I think Ole Miss wins this game outright, and I thought this even before Texas went out and looked awful against BYU.

Because Vegas believes that the Louisville story is a bit of a myth. They also lost to really bad/mediocre Syracuse and UConn teams.

And if I’m wrong on this, you guys can call me a complete and total idiot. Toss in injuries for Texas on offense, and I really think Ole Miss could not just win this game but own it.

4. Vandy at South Carolina, 7 p.m. You might as well get used to typing in our station.

So without further ado, let’s see if I can make you guys some money again this week.

We had a little bit of a bounce-back performance last week with the picks, tallying a 4-2 record — including nailing all three big games. Louisville at Kentucky, noon ET, ESPN

10. I tend to think Ole Miss and Vandy are both good teams, and I think we’ll find that out this weekend.

You all have FS1. Nothing more needs to be said.

Let’s roll, you degenerates.

I tweeted about the opening line early Sunday morning, Louisville -7.5, and by the time I landed back in Nashville, Tenn., the line had moved all the way to Louisville -13.5.

Nebraska will either win by three or lose by 30. Remember, Vandy almost pulled off the upset in last year’s season opener. Mississippi State at Auburn, 7 p.m. Can Butch Jones keep it respectable, or is Oregon intent on sending a message that they can run up the score on SEC teams, too?

I think Alabama will win this game something like 31-27. Second, look at Louisville’s 2012 schedule. (Granted, one of those teams was Kentucky). Tennessee at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

This is the second-best game of the day, and most of us will struggle to find it on television.

The game that Tennessee fans will be watching while peeking through their fingers. Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn can start off his Auburn coaching career 3-0. Ole Miss at Texas, 8 p.m. Yes, they put a whipping on Florida, which really launched Louisville as a “top 10 team” story. ET, ESPN

But at -28?

Ole Miss at Texas -3

6. ET.

5. ET, FOX

This is the second-largest line in the history of Tennessee football. Even with Mo Couch suspended on the defensive line, Tennessee has some decent weapons up front defensively. UCLA at Nebraska, noon ET, ABC

I don’t think Cal will pull off the upset, but should the Buckeyes be a little bit nervous about this trip? I think so.

It’s worth keeping an eye on this one. Not great, but not that bad either.

Mississippi State at Auburn -6

I can’t wait to see what’s going to happen here. This is one of several 7 p.m. But the Cardinals beat only two teams by more than 10 points last year. Can you guys finish the night off with me? This is a huge game for both teams and both conferences here.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina -13.5

This will be the win that makes Hugh Freeze a household name among college football fans.

In Gus Malzahn I trust.

If the rape trial and investigation weren’t hanging over Vandy’s football team, this would be my upset pick of the week. Both are equally likely.

Nearly two touchdowns is too many points here.

. (Which happens every day anyway on Twitter, but still, I’ll deserve it for not picking Louisville to destroy a bad Kentucky team.)

I’ve also included my viewer guide so that you can follow along with me all day long watching games.

That’s why I think the Vols cover even though Oregon wins by double digits.

Alabama -7.5 at Texas A&M

I believe that Louisville’s dominance is a bit of a myth.

I would have taken Oregon at -20, where this line opened.

Hugh Freeze had to be delirious with joy when he watched that Texas defense against BYU. ET, Longhorn Network

1. First, Outkick told you that Louisville’s schedule is so weak that 26 different teams would be favored in every game. to 12 p.m. I’m predicting a deep Freeze for Texas.

You guys can start talking Twitter trash to me early if Louisville immediately jumps out to a three-touchdown lead.

This week I’m going with the five biggest SEC games and then, to me, the second-best game of the weekend, which is Ole Miss at Texas.

It’s hard to know which game will be the best.

I expect South Carolina to win this game, but I think Vandy will keep it close.

Mississippi State is not a good football team. Getting A&M plus a touchdown is just too good to pass up here. Auburn isn’t a good football team yet, but I think by the time November rolls around they will be good.

So, drum roll .

9. games to be keeping tabs on.

The game of the year. This is a massive game for Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen. I’m taking Kentucky plus two touchdowns.

Ninety-five percent of all the money is on Louisville, and we’ve finally settled at two touchdowns.

War Eagle.

Louisville -14 at Kentucky

8. (The Vols were 30-point underdogs at Florida in the first year of the Lane Kiffin era).

Tennessee at Oregon -28

That’s just too many points, I think.

I’m going to admit something to y’all: This game terrifies me.

Even if most of y’all will be unable to watch this game on the Longhorn Network.

I told you, I think this game will be closer than expected. Start off with us on “FOX College Saturday” from 10 a.m. Can he make many? I doubt it. Alabama at Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m. But can he avoid complete disaster? I think so.

We really don’t know much about either of these teams. It’s 1620 on Comcast. ET, ESPN2

3. This is way too many points for the Commodores to be giving up to South Carolina. The defensive team speed is bad — and will doubtless be exposed — but Tennessee has one of the top offensive lines in the country. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Johnny Manziel makes a play or two to swing this in the other direction. Doubt me? Ask Northwestern.

Why is this line hanging here?



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